Remember this guy? He's still not winning.

Amid the twists and turns of the 2008 presidential election, there's been one surprising bit of stability: Bush is still beating Kerry in the 2004 contest. In a Diageo/Hotline poll released last Friday, respondents were asked who (if anyone) they voted for in 2004. Among those who said they did vote, Bush got 48 percent to 30 percent for Kerry, with the rest declining to reveal their choice or giving some other answer. That fits a pattern we’ve seen throughout the past 12 months in polls that ask respondents to divulge their 2004 choice. A Time/SRBI survey last November had Bush winning by 50 percent to 44 percent, while a Diageo/Hotline poll in July had him winning by 45 percent to 39 percent. Last April, an NPR/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey had Bush edging Kerry by 48 percent to 46 percent, around the same time that Time/SRBI had Bush winning by 51 percent to 44 percent. Since Bush actually did beat Kerry, you might say these results aren’t surprising. But given the rising antipathy toward Bush in the years since that election, we might have expected (human nature being as it is) to see some of his 2004 supporters taking the opportunity to remember their vote differently. Maybe survey respondents are more honest than we sometimes give them credit for.

—Posted by Mark Dolliver

April 9, 2008 in Dolliver | Permalink